InsideSources

Transportation stands on the precipice of its greatest revolution in nearly a century. From the exciting innovations on the horizon like flying cars to those hitting the roads right now like autonomous vehicles to the way entrepreneurs have changed our way of traversing the last mile of a journey with dockless scooters and ridesharing services, the way we get from place to place is evolving more quickly than many of us realize.

The American auto industry was a leader in the last transportation revolution that took cars from novelty to a part of everyday life, and now some of these manufacturers are determined to reclaim their innovative prowess by revamping the dying relic of an industry back to a pioneering success. Case in point: GM recently announced that it would be shifting its focus to electric and autonomous vehicles.

At first, it’s easy to focus on the immediate negative effect of such an announcement, like workforce reduction, but these changes signal that the American auto industry might not remain a relic of another era. Rather than seeking more government handouts it is adopting the innovator’s aphorism: “change or die.”

This willingness to embrace — and desire to lead — the new transportation innovation may be in General Motors’ corporate DNA. In the early 1900s, two horse-and-carriage manufacturers founded a car company in Flint, Michigan, at a time when cars were still an uncertain novelty. Rather than continuing to place a safe bet on the current mode of transportation, General Motors and other early American automakers looked ahead to the future of transportation.

They didn’t insist on continuing to manufacture horse-driven vehicles in the early 20th century, nor did many bemoan a decrease in the blacksmith trade that accompanied the shift to cars. Why would anyone now suggest trying to prop up what an inevitably archaic industry model instead of allowing a company to embrace a safer, more sought after innovation? With autonomous vehicles already deployed in several states and a rapid growth in electric vehicles expected in coming years, GM’s decision may help lead the transportation industry into the future just as it did when it transitioned from horses to engines.

The future of autonomous and electric vehicles will be safer and more enjoyable. And with more companies focusing on this technology, it will only get here sooner. Ninety-four percent of car crashes are caused by human errors, and tragically, more than 40,000 Americans died in such accidents in 2017. A study by McKinsey & Company found that widely adopting autonomous vehicles could reduce accidents by 90 percent and save thousands of lives annually.

Autonomous vehicles will also improve lives by giving those currently unable to drive greater independence and less of the stress associated with driving. AARP touts the benefits of how such vehicles will prolong independence later in life. Research also suggests that autonomous vehicles will greatly improve the lives of those with disabilities by giving them access to more job opportunities and making it easier to conduct tasks while traveling to medical appointments. Freed from many of the stressors of actively driving and dealing with congestion, commuting time may actually become enjoyable again when the car itself can do the driving.

These safer, more pleasant rides may be here sooner rather than later, thanks to increased competition and technological focus from both Silicon Valley innovators and old-guard automakers. GM hopes to be testing fully autonomous vehicles without a backup driver in the seat in the near future. Google’s Waymo is set to launch an autonomous taxi service this month in Arizona. Other industry leaders like Ford and Uber continue to expand testing and refine the product in cities such as Miami and Pittsburgh. These tests help improve the technology and make us more comfortable with seeing nobody behind the wheel.

GM’s decision may signal a turning point that leads to the dangers of human-driven cars landing firmly in the history books. At the birth of America’s auto industry, an adage famously misattributed to Henry Ford said, “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” Luckily for GM, rather trying to figure out how to make horses faster, it’s focusing on a technology that will make our lives safer and more gratifying.

Industry leaders and federal regulators are convinced 5G will radically transform the internet and the economy, but is the hype getting ahead of the tech?

Last week the 5G hype ramped up with Samsung debuting its 5G technology and POLITICO hosting a 5G event with industry leaders and federal regulators in Washington, D.C.—hype inspired by the extremely high speed 5G makes possible.

But how fast is 5G?  According to Qualcomm’s tests of the technology, download speeds are at about 100 megabits per second (Mbps) compared to just 8 Mbps with LTE. Data downloads will be 100 times faster than 4G.

One of the areas where 5G speeds are creating the most excitement — and arguably has the most potential — is autonomous vehicles (AVs).

At the POLITICO event, for example, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Assistant Policy Counsel of Chamber Technology Engagement Center (C_TEC) Jordan Crenshaw said that 5G is a “top consideration” for AV developers because 4G networks don’t have fast enough download/upload speeds to support the connections AVs need.  AVs require a strong wireless connection in order to adopt data processing speeds that can imitate a human driver, Forbes reported.

According to Qualcomm, 5G’s “high throughput and ultra-reliable low latency communication (URLLC)” theoretically allows cars to communicate with each other “without dependency or reliance on wide area network coverage.”  AVs must be able to communicate with each otherin order for them to safely use the road.

“[5G] will enable autonomous vehicles to directly share their perception of the road, road conditions and surroundings, with each other and with road infrastructure in an efficient manner,” Qualcomm said in a blog post. “Autonomous vehicles rely on several different kinds of sensors to be able to detect and infer their surroundings and road conditions. While sensors such as radar, and camera systems are essential, these sensors are limited by their line-of-sight (LOS) operation. [5G] direct communication complements the capabilities of these sensors by providing 360-degree non-LOS (NLOS) awareness, extending a vehicle’s ability to detect farther down the road — even at blind intersections or in poor weather conditions.”

AVs are just one use case of how 5G could transform various industries, of course.  It could also enable and encourage the telehealth movement, which seeks to provide remote care and assistance via video call to consumers. Smartphones will have better video streaming, lower latency rates and extended battery life. In fact, 5G speeds are expected to be so fast that they will surpass cable and satellite internet, effectively allowing mobile telecomm companies like AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon to compete with the likes of Charter Communications, Comcast and other local internet service providers (ISPs).

And then there’s the economic impact of this new level of technology: The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) believes that its plan to rollout 5G nationwide will save more than $2 billion “in unnecessary fees” and stimulate $2.5 billion in investment. And economists who’ve reviewed these estimates agree—If 5G lives up to the hype.

Not everyone is so sure that it can. Projected speeds of new wireless rollouts are rarely match reality. The peak rate of wireless users are usually only 15 percent of the projected peak rate, according to industry experts, and Wi-Fi routers in homes often only offer one third to half of the advertised speed.

If actual 5G speeds don’t reach the expected speeds, then 5G won’t enable AVs.

And then there’s the infrastructure problem. Self-driving cars can’t “self-drive” beyond the range of the network, as Motherboard reported in a recent article.

“The current geographical disparities in internet access mean it’s probably not going to happen for at least another 15–20 years,” they conclude.

According to a report from ZDNet, the key with 5G is reliability. It doesn’t matter how much faster the 5G speeds are, if they aren’t consistent and reliable, AVs and other 5G-empowered industry advancements won’t get far.

Then there’s the issue of actually processing the data 5G-connected sensors on cars will provide. It’s one thing to have a super-connected car, and quite another to know how to have the processing bandwidth to handle what it is providing.

Some industry analysts are skeptical 5G will be anything more than a “mobile upgrade:” Barclays analysts doubt, for example, that 5G will replace broadband internet in homes and businesses without a dramatic increase in investment.

It’s temping for industry innovators to oversell the promises of a new technology like 5G. Based on the current data, the right word to describe its impact is likely “evolution” rather than “revolution.”  But if comes close to living up to the hype, it will make a major impact on our economy, our workplaces and our daily lives.

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