InsideSources

In post-midterms America, the Democratic Party is all about the “B’s”– Bernie, Biden and Beto.

A new straw poll by the progressive political action committee Democracy for America gives Sen. Bernie Sanders a big lead among its supporters, with former Vice President Joe Biden and Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke in the second and third spots. And, once again, Sen. Elizabeth Warren lags well behind.

Vermont progressive Bernie Sanders topped with list with 36 percent, followed by Biden at 15 percent and O’Rourke–the Left’s flavor-of-the-month–at 12 percent. Sen. Warren was in fourth place with just 8 percent of DFA’s support, narrowly edging out California Sen. Kamala Harris at 7 percent.

“Let’s be clear: Progressive support in the 2020 Democratic primary is up for grabs and so is Democracy for America’s endorsement,” said DFA’s incoming chairman Charles Chamberlain, in a statement released to Politico.  “Unlike 2016, no candidate has support strong enough for the Democratic Party establishment to clear the field, which means progressives will have an excellent opportunity over the next year to kick the tires on a wide range of different candidates and find the best one to take on Trump.”

DFA, an organization founded by progressive Howard Dean, endorsed Sanders in the heated 2016 Democratic POTUS primary, so it’s no surprise that he’s the top choice of their membership.  However, the fact that a series of polls–both among progressives and Democrats as a whole–put the same three candidates in the top tier gives a good indication of how likely primary voters view the current field of contenders.

And perhaps most significant, one-time front-runner Elizabeth Warren doesn’t crack the top three in any of these surveys.

For example, last week the progressive activist group MoveOn.org released the results of their own straw poll. Beto was on top, with Biden and Bernie close behind. Warren trailed Harris and came in fifth. Similarly, a national poll of Democrats released by CNN over the weekend put Biden at top, followed by Bernie and Beto, with Sen. Warren in seventh place and just 3 percent support.

Pollsters and political pros all agree that polling and surveys two year ahead of the general election are far too early to be significant. The consensus, rather, is that there is no consensus.

“There is no frontrunner there,” pollster Frank Luntz said on Fox News. “There are twice as many candidates they may run for the Democrats this time as ran for the Republicans two years ago.”

Philip Klein at the Washington Examiner argues that the strong performance by Beto O’Rourke is less a reflection of the Texas Democrat’s strength than the weakness of the field overall. “The fact that O’Rourke, without doing much, could leapfrog all of the other candidates who had been clearly positioning themselves to run for years, suggests that none of the Democratic candidates enter the race in a particularly strong position,” Klein writes.

And despite his consistently strong showing in these surveys, Joe Biden insists he won’t make his decision to run based on the polls.

“I don’t think about the polling data,” Biden told CBS News. “I think about whether or not I should run based on very private decisions relating to my family and the loss of my son and what I want to do with the rest of my life. But I don’t think of it in terms of can I win, can I – will I lose. That’s not part of the calculation.”

Everybody knows that New York City firebrand — and future Congresswoman — Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez supports hot-button progressive causes like the #AbolishICE movement and impeaching President Trump. But how many people are aware that she’s in favor of restoring the Glass-Steagall Act? Or that she believes “we also should make sure that no bank is allowed to become ‘too-big-to-fail’ and that oversized banks are broken up to reduce the likelihood of a financial crash?”

While the media have focused on the political consequences of the Democratic Party’s battle between passionate progressives and the party establishment, people in the banking and finance sectors may want to keep an eye on something else: The impact of this progressive shift in the party on their bottom lines.

The progressives infiltrating the Democratic Party are not only doing so at a higher rates and greater chances of success, but they’re also pushing for tighter Wall Street regulation.

For the first two years of the Trump presidency, Democrats have made few high-profile efforts to stop President Donald Trump’s deregulation agenda, particularly in the financial sector. But earlier this year, 33 House Democrats and 17 Senate Democrats rolled over when Republicans rolled back key provisions in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010.

But the new generation of progressive Democrats and the energized base that’s electing them is unlikely to sit quietly should they take power from the GOP in the midterms.

For one thing, anti-big-business sentiment is growing. According to an August Gallup poll, 47 percent of Democrats view capitalism positively—down from 56 percent in 2016— while 57 percent continue to view socialism positively, around the same percentage in 2010.

The Brookings Institution found that more radical, progressive Democrats are infiltrating the “establishment” Democratic Party, and more are winning primaries than ever before. They may not win enough to completely radicalize the party, but it’s enough to stop Democrats from cutting deals on financial reform with the GOP.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a democratic socialist urging her party to embrace a more aggressive regulatory agenda.  Cynthia Nixon, challenging Democratic incumbent Andrew Cuomo in the New York state gubernatorial race, self-describes as a democratic socialist, and highlights a planned crackdown on Wall Street on her platform, hoping to “hold Wall Street and big corporations accountable, and strengthen protections for workers and consumers.” Win or lose, she’s made it harder for Democrats in New York—America’s financial capital—to compromise with the industry.

Ayanna Pressley, who upset Massachusetts incumbent Rep. Michael Capuano in the 7th Congressional District primary,  sports a distinctly anti-big business flavor on her platform. She defeated Capuano despite the fact the he also  wanted a new Glass-Steagall Act, which he introduced last year to a Republican-controlled house.

Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), the Democrat challenging Sen. Ted Cruz’s Texas seat, decried the rollback of Dodd-Frank in March while simultaneously approving of the relief the rollback provided to community banks.

Andrew Gillum, who beat establishment Democrat Gwen Graham in the bid for Democratic nomination for Florida governor and has been called a socialist (like Ocasio-Cortez), also promotes an anti-big business agenda on his platform, and wants to raise the corporate tax rate for the state of Florida should he become governor (as mayor of Tallahassee, he raised the corporate tax rate to 40 percent).

All five of these progressives have had surprising success in their party, in part because they represent the growing anti-big business and anti-big bank sentiment among Democratic voters.

In the past, Wall Street and the banking industry have used their bipartisan generosity to make friends on both sides of the aisle.  This new group of left-leaning or openly socialist democrats may mean the financial sector will have to find a new playbook if Democrats take power.  Or else face the consequences.

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