InsideSources

Former Mayor of Cedar Rapids and Former Speaker of the Iowa House of Representatives Ron Corbett had his campaign for the Republican gubernatorial nomination come to a halt this week after he failed to reach the necessary 4,005 nomination signatures required to compete in the primary. He was only eight signatures shy, at 3,997.

The two-hour-long hearing on the matter was just one of nine challenges that the three-panel board heard in regards to the nominating process that concluded two weeks ago. Since the deadline, the 2018 nomination and primary cycle has been headline-grabbing, said Republican strategist Matt Strawn. He couldn’t recall another instance in which both a top DCCC recruited congressional candidate, Theresa Greenfield (Congressional District 3), and a longtime Republican elected official, Ron Corbett, both put themselves in a position to miss the June primary ballot.

Craig Robinson, Republican strategist and founder and editor-in-chief of The Iowa Republican, challenged Corbett’s signatures, which were at 4,091 before the hearing began, stating that there were duplicates and missing information on the signature forms, bringing down the actual total to 3,983. With a defense of attempting to add crossed-out signatures to the total count, Corbett’s camp was able to come up just eight signatures short.

In Greenfield’s case, upon submitting her nomination papers with the appropriate amount of signatures, it was discovered through the media that she did not in fact reach the amount of signatures provided, due to her campaign manager forging signatures to reach the minimum threshold. Subsequently, Greenfield turned in another petition, this time failing to achieve that threshold, and that application was rejected by the Secretary of State’s Office. At a Democratic district convention last weekend however, an affidavit was submitted to have Greenfield put on the ballot. Robinson’s team challenged this decision, as well, on the grounds that Greenfield did not formally withdraw her second petition. The panel ruled that the Secretary of State’s rejection was grounds enough as a withdraw, however, Secretary of State Paul Pate said that he disagreed with the process by which she is attempting to get on the ballot, but couldn’t formally make a decision to deny the actions of the district convention.

Less high-profile challenges occupied most of the day’s affairs. A total of eight challenges were made against Republican candidates. In total, the nine challenges in an election cycle could be considered a high number, especially with eight coming within one party. Kevin Hall, a spokesman for the Secretary of State, did not have an exact total of previous challenges through the nomination process over the last several years, though Strawn said that the challenge strategy makes sense, given that if a nominee challenge should result in a candidate disqualification, then candidates don’t have to spend money on a primary before competing against the other party in the formal election. Avoiding a primary means more money to spend.

University of Iowa Professor Tim Hagle said that nine challenges might be high, but it “might also be that we just weren’t paying close attention in the past.”

Hagle said that generally, there are often challenges that formulate from two points. One is when a candidate from one party challenges another candidate from another party.

“Along these lines it’s no surprise that, for example, the nomination petitions of Governor Reynolds were challenged,” Hagle said. “Having problems with nomination petitions or even failing to meet the requirements can be an embarrassment and can cause the party to scramble to find a way around the problem (such as having to nominate a candidate at a convention). This is a particular problem for an incumbent as it gives the opposing party a talking point regarding the apparent lack of competence of the incumbent.”

The second is when the challenge occurs within the party, which usually happens when there is competition for a nomination, such as Corbett challenging Reynolds to a primary.

“Reynolds would obviously prefer to not have competition in the primary so it’s no surprise that Corbett’s petitions were challenged,” Hagle said. “There were plenty of Republicans who didn’t think Corbett should challenge a sitting Republican governor in a year that could be tough for Republicans even if she hadn’t been elected in her own right before.”

In a situation when there isn’t an incumbent, Hagle said, a challenge is still a way to cut down on the competition if one of the candidates hasn’t gotten the required signatures for the nomination. Hagle said that challenges to nomination petitions aren’t something new.

“It’s possible, however, that in a more polarized political environment we will see candidates or parties (or supporters of either) willing to use such challenges as an additional tactic,” Hagle said. “There are obviously individual aspects of every race, but if there is an overall trend for increased challenges, increased partisanship might be a contributing factor.”

The 2018 Iowa gubernatorial race could stand to be one of the most expensive races on record in the state as Iowa Ethics and Campaign Disclosure data shows approximately $11 million raised in total campaign contributions in 2017 for the race. This breaks the previous record in 2005, when $5 million was raised in a race that saw Chet Culver win the Democratic nomination, and ultimately the victory over Republican Jim Nussle in 2006.

Incumbent Republican Kim Reynolds had the largest amount of cash on hand at the end of the 2017 funding cycle, with a total of approximately $4.1 million, followed by Democratic challenger Fred Hubbell, at approximately $1.2 million. The next closest candidates are Republican Ron Corbett, Democrat Cathy Glasson, and Democrat Nate Boulton. This campaign data doesn’t include in-and-out of state contributions made in 2018.

Iowa Governor campaign finance numbers from both the Iowa Republican and Democratic Parties. Numbers are approximate and include in-and-out-of-state funding through the 2017 filing cycle, not including January 2018.

At the upper echelon of donation receipts is Reynolds, who received approximately $3.74 million, followed by Hubbell at approximately $3.05 million, Glasson at $1.3 million, and Boulton, at approximately $1.08 million. In total, the number of candidates sitting with six figures or more in cash on hand is seven.

“It is incredible that they have raised so much money before the election year,” said Assistant Professor of Political Science at Iowa State University Dave Andersen. “The election year hasn’t really kicked off yet and they have a tremendous amount of money. Even the candidates who have six figures, if you go to any other election cycle, that would make them competitive.”

The Democrats
Andersen said that the Democratic race for the nomination is “interesting” because five of the candidates sit at a minimum of six figures in cash on hand, making them viable for a state-wide campaign, especially since the heat of campaign funding doesn’t come until around April, before the June primary.

Anderson says Democrats must be concerned about the uphill climb they will face against Reynolds’ massive war chest–thinking that may play a factor in deciding the party’s nominee.

One surprising aspect of the 2018 gubernatorial election is the sudden rise of Glasson, a progressive candidate who amassed over $1 million in contributions over the reporting cycle, with more on the way in out of state contributions for the month of January 2018. Andersen said that Glasson “appears” to fit in with the energy that Bernie Sanders brought to the 2016 Democratic Primaries, and supports a progressive agenda, which Andersen said he “hadn’t really heard of before,” in the state. Our Revolution, one of the largest progressive groups in the nation formed in 2016 to carry on the work of Senator Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaign, announced its endorsement for Glasson last week.

However, Glasson will have to endure a campaign season full of seven candidates, all wanting the same thing. Andersen said that the fact that so many Democrats are viable in the election, while appearing to energize the base, will ultimately hurt the party in the election.

“In the short run, it’s good for the Democratic Party because with so many different voices coming from all different regions of the state, it’s likely that the individual candidates will resonate more,” Andersen said. “So it makes the Democratic Party look more vibrant and active. But unfortunately, they’re going to wind up angry at a lot of those people because not everyone can win. And the Independents, who really split the difference between Democrats and Republicans in the state, they’re going to hear a lot of negative messages about Democratic candidates, even the one who winds up winning, and they will hold that against them come the November election.”

The Republicans
Andersen said that that the results of Reynolds’ fundraising are in line with expectations for an incumbent. The numbers from in-and-out of state show she has the funding support from establishment Republicans from across the nation that want to see her hold onto the seat. Having approximately $4.1 million at this stage of the campaign has her in a strong position, Andersen said.

While Andersen noted that the Reynolds campaign has the makings of taking the nomination, he also exercised caution about overlooking Corbett in the race.

“Kim Reynolds winds up being very interesting,” Andersen said. “The last poll I’ve seen, is Ann Selzer did a poll in December [2017], that showed that Kim Reynolds’ approval rating is like 51 percent, which sounds great and yet, something like 60 percent of people would prefer someone else to be governor. That’s really hard to reconcile. It suggests people of Iowa like Kim just fine. The people think she’s a fine governor, but they’re willing to entertain other options, and that’s where Corbett comes in.”

Corbett was the mayor of Cedar Rapids from 2010 through 2012, and prior to that, served in the Iowa House of Representatives for seven terms beginning in 1986, and was Speaker of the House from 1995 through 1999.

“[Corbett’s] got a strong center of support from Cedar Rapids,” Andersen said. “They like him there, and he’s put together enough money that he’s going to be a viable candidate and have a statewide campaign, and a good chunk of the population doesn’t know him yet. So he could put together a campaign and derail Reynolds, even though she has a huge amount of money and she’s relatively popular and she’s the sitting governor.”

Andersen said that the ability of Corbett to run a campaign where no one really has a firm grasp of his political identity could help him with the funds he has been able to amass, and could prove challenging for Reynolds to simply run attack ads.

Things to watch
Andersen said that while there’s a notion that money can “buy” elections, it doesn’t in practice. He pointed to the Alabama Senate race last year in which Republican Roy Moore was defeated by Democrat Doug Jones. Andersen noted that there was a lot of money poured into the Moore campaign, but that in the end, the parties have to nominate a candidate who can win.

Andersen did say that money creates a “better situation” for candidates, as it allows campaigns the funding to perform damage control on negative press, and more funding to highlight positive positions.

“The thing to watch right now,” Andersen said, “is the number of people who don’t have an opinion on candidates, and as those numbers go down, that’s a sign that someone’s campaign advertising is really sinking in with the population. The real key is to see how much of that goes into a favorable opinion of a particular candidate.”

Andersen pointed to Corbett’s campaign financing as a campaign that won’t likely have to use it’s money on controlling damage as not much is known about him, which allocates more money to positive usage. He said that if Corbett can inform the “six out of 10 Iowans who don’t know who is,” he stands a chance to beat Reynolds.

As to the Democratic race and the possible divide between grassroots campaigns and party politics — more notably Hubbell’s stature as a wealthy businessman and donor, and the other candidates’ grassroots efforts, Andersen continued that while money doesn’t buy elections, it garners support from the party.

“It has become much more common in this age in politics as elections become more expensive,” Andersen said. “You get these billionaires who are able to self-fund the beginning of their campaign, and the national party loves them, because the national party is looking to win as many seats as they can. And if they can find an area where a candidate is competitive, even if they’re not the most competitive, but they’re competitive and they can fund the race themselves, it saves the national party millions of dollars that they would of otherwise has to invest. So the national party has a real buy in with candidates like this [Hubbell].”