Why did the terrorists choose Paris? First, because it’s one of the world’s great cities; second, because it’s the site of the climate talks. If anything good can come out of an event so horrible it may be this: comparing the ISIS situation with the climate situation will makes us realize that one is a crisis and the other is not.
Islamic radicalism has been making headlines since the Iranian Revolution of 1978-79 but has never appeared so revolting as now. ISIS, dedicated to the destruction of the West and of all rival forms of Islam, kills men by the thousands, persecutes women, and smashes artistic treasures. It’s even had the previously unimaginable effect of making the Syrian dictatorship look restrained. All the democracies have an incentive to respond intelligently and forcefully, without delay.
Climate change has been making headlines since James Hansen’s testimony before Congress in the hot summer of 1988. Despite the rhetoric, however, it hasn’t yet killed anyone, hasn’t destroyed anything, and remains a vague future threat. Unlike ISIS, it doesn’t menace anybody right now. We often hear about the need for climate action as a duty not to ourselves but to our grandchildren.
I’m a historian. When someone makes a political argument based on the welfare of my grandchildren I instinctively ask: “What did my grandparents do for which I—the grandchild–should be grateful, and did they do other things that I should resent?” The answer is that they fought against German and Japanese aggression, and carried on the tradition of Western industrialization.
I am grateful on both counts and bear them no ill will. If they had been defeated, democracy would have disappeared. If they had tried to slow down industrialization we would today live poorer, not richer, lives. They took care of the problems that confronted their own generation and were right to do so. We should do the same.
It’s true that industrialization generates pollution and greenhouse gases, but it has brought immense benefits too. Life expectancy has increased dramatically since the industrial revolution began, nutrition and general health levels have improved, while living standards have gone up and up. Industrialization is the only way humanity has ever found to end mass poverty.
Climate change is real and is, at least in part, human induced. It makes sense for us to work on renewable energy and, meanwhile, to increase the efficiency of fossil-fuel systems. But climate change is a problem, not a crisis. As we get wealthier through industrialization we develop far greater resilience than our ancestors, and much better ways of adapting to change.
History also shows a strong link between industrialization and political freedom. The great industrial nations, including America, Britain and France, are also the strongest democracies, with respect for freedom of speech, the press, and religion. The economically backward nations are among the great tyrannies, and lack even the most elementary personal freedoms.
The tragedy of Syria and Iraq is that they did not emulate the Western pattern of industrialization, and have not reaped its benefits. Instead they have nurtured a fanatical opposition, seeking to crush the institutions that have rescued the world from poverty and repression.
France’s foreign minister said after the attacks that the climate conference would not be canceled “because it’s an essential meeting for humanity.” He knows as well as anyone that the conference will actually consist of bombastic rhetoric, vague speculation about future calamities, and non-binding commitments to reduce emissions. Outside the conference, meanwhile, the real and immediate response to a real and urgent crisis will continue.