Women voters are likely to be the difference makers between Republicans taking control of the House and Senate after the midterm elections. A shift in power in Congress in 2022 would send a strong message to President Joe Biden and his re-election team, forcing the Administration to move away from extreme progressive policies for a more moderate middle ground in preparation for the 2024 election.
When studying women voting trends and polls, we see women have voted to increase women’s representation in Congress while focusing on some different issues, than male voters. The 117th Congress contains record numbers of women in the House, 120, and one short of the record in the Senate with 24. According to exit polling conducted by The Washington Post during the 2020 election, women voted for Joe Biden by a 15percent gap. As we go into a midterm election with a tradition of big losses for the party in power, Republicans will be targeting women voters to attempt a takeover of the leadership of the House of Representatives and the Senate. The House is a near certainty in switching parties, while the Senate is where the more difficult political battle will be held.
One issue that might boost Republican success next fall is the issue of the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act (PWFA). This is an extension of protections for pregnant workers that mirrors the protections in the Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA). The ADA was a signature achievement of the Administration of Republican President George H. W. Bush in 1990. The current version of the PWFA would provide some legal guidance for both the employers and employees on what an employer can do to accommodate a pregnant worker. The bill has significant support from Republicans, but if pro-life and pro-business Republicans in Congress embrace this issue, it may help to make inroads with some of the women voters who abandoned the party in 2016 and 2020.
Protecting pregnant workers and their unborn babies is an easy issue for pro-life Republicans. The U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops wrote Congress in August of this year and argued, “we write in support of the Pregnant Workers Fairness Act, S. 1486, which will make the workplace a safer environment for nursing mothers, pregnant women, and their unborn children.” The Bishops believe that current law “does not adequately protect pregnant workers” and they expressed support for the idea of providing “reasonable accommodations for pregnant workers; protecting pregnant workers from being denied employment opportunities, being forced to take leave if another reasonable accommodation is available, or otherwise being retaliated against for requesting reasonable accommodations; and providing rights and remedies for workers if they are denied reasonable accommodations.” There seems to be enough support from Republican women in Congress, including cosponsors Reps. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-WA), Elise Stefanik (R-NY), Ann Wagner (R-MO), and Cathy McMorris Rogers (R-WA), to motivate other Republicans to express support. This bill passed the House with ninety-nine Republicans voting in favor of the measure on May 14, 2021.
Polling indicates that this issue is a political winner. The Tarrance Group conducted a poll on the bill and found that the legislation had 89 percent support, with Republicans supporting at an 81 percent rate, Trump voters at an 80 percent rate, and self-described conservative voters supporting at an 80 percent rate. This seems like one of those issues where Republicans can show they can work to govern responsibly when they are on the cusp of taking the House back from the Democrats.
The legislation seems to have enough support to easily pass the Senate. The Senate version of the bill, S. 1486, has yet to come up, but it already has the support of four Republicans, Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Shelley Moore Capito (R-W. Va,), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), and Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). The Chamber of Commerce supports the bill because they worry that under current law employers “face great uncertainty about whether, and how, they are required to accommodate pregnant workers.” Also, a large coalition of businesses and interests representing businesses have expressed support in a letter to Congress.
This bill is likely to pass, and the only question is whether Republicans can get in front of the issue to help get it passed quicker to forward the pro-business and pro-life cause and have an edge with women voters in the upcoming midterm elections.
