Editor’s Note: For an alternative viewpoint, please see Point: The Case That Democrats Will Maintain Their Hold on Congress in 2022
Reading the political tea leaves 18 months in advance is as tricky as making a weather forecast for the same timeframe. But every so often, circumstances combine to increase the odds in the forecaster’s favor. Looking ahead to next year’s midterms is one of them. Because if things continue on their current course, November 8, 2022 will be a very good night for Republicans around the country.
For starters, history is on the GOP’s side going into the campaign. There’s a long track record of the incumbent president’s party losing seats during a midterm election. In fact, since 1934 only two presidents have enjoyed an increase in their party’s numbers in the House and Senate – FDR in ’34 and George W. Bush in ’02. Excluding those two exceptions, losses are big for the party that occupies 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Especially for first-term presidents and particularly in the House. Consider Trump (-40 in 2018), Obama (-63 in 2010), Clinton (-52 in 1994), Reagan (-26 in 1982), and Ford (-48 in 1974). All were shellacked at the ballot box, resulting in significantly fewer members of their party in the House of Representatives.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the GOP also has a turnout advantage in midterms, also. Under Republican presidents since 1978, the GOP has enjoyed a +1 shift toward party identification for those who vote in midterm elections. That margin swells to +5 under Democrat presidents.
Contemporary history doesn’t bode well for Democrats, either. Expectations for the Left aren’t nearly as high going into 2022 as they were just a year ago. 2020 was supposed to deal a crushing blow to Republicans up and down the ballot. Instead, the GOP defeated 12 incumbent House Democrats and successfully defended every incumbent Republican seat.
If historical trends weren’t enough, Democrats are dealing Republicans a winning hand, too. The Democrat-backed plans to pack the Supreme Court and to end the Senate filibuster are wildly unpopular. A recent Mason-Dixon poll found 65 percent of Americans, and a whopping 72 percent of independents, opposed court-packing. The same survey showed only 37 percent of Americans supported ending the filibuster while 69 percent of independents opposed it. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker concluded, “moderate and unaffiliated voters did not vote for Joe Biden in 2020 ‘to turn the government upside-down’ or ‘remake America’.” But that’s exactly what Democrats are trying to do. And it will inevitably hurt them on Election Day, especially when 56 percent of independents said they would be less likely to re-elect their senator if he or she supported those two disliked and radical Democrat priorities.
Beyond seeking to dramatically alter fundamental government mainstays that have been around for over 150 years, Democrats must also answer for the crisis at the border, pushing citizenship for illegal immigrants, trillion-dollar spending bonanzas, D.C. statehood, radical gun control measures, defunding the police, and increasingly rising fuel and food costs. Whatever hope there was for governing from the middle is gone. Once again, Democrats are overplaying their hand.
But Republicans’ biggest advantage in 2022 might come from redistricting. Topline 2020 census numbers show both New York (Biden +23.2) and California (Biden +29.2) losing seats in 2022 while Texas (Trump +5.6), Montana (Trump +16.4), North Carolina (Trump +1.6), and Florida (Trump +3.3) will all gain seats.
Republicans also enjoy governing trifectas in 23 states, meaning the GOP controls all three branches of state government. Democrat trifectas exist in just 15 states. This will have a substantial impact on the soon-to-be-drawn congressional districts. As political commentator Hugh Hewitt pointed out in a recent Washington Post op-ed, the “GOP will enjoy complete control of drawing new boundaries for 181 congressional districts, compared with a maximum of 74 for Democrats.”
Finally, don’t forget about Donald Trump. He turns out the base like no one else can, whether he’s on the ballot or not. The same can’t be said for Joe Biden.
2022 is shaping up for one big collective “You’re Fired!” to Democrats across America.
