Defense spokesman John Kirby said on Jan. 31, and reiterated on Feb. 2, that Russia is prepared for an attack on Ukraine.
“Putin has a lot of options available to him if he wants to further invade Ukraine, and he can execute some of those options imminently,” Kirby told Fox News Sunday.
Russia has amassed 100,000 thousand troops along Ukraine’s border and is clearly menacing its neighbor.
Ukraine is a country with a population greater than 40 million who speak Russian in addition to their native tongue. They understand the mentality of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many citizens served in the Soviet Army. They are not naïve.
Questions for the U.S. focus on what role to play to change Russia’s behavior.
On Feb. 2, President Joe Biden approved a move of as many as 3,000 U.S. troops to move into eastern Europe to help pressure Russia to not invade their smaller southern neighbor.
But as Robert Wilkie, former Undersecretary of Defense and Secretary of Veterans Affairs, noted, dictators are not persuaded if they do not believe the intent of the messenger.
“The bottom line is that the dictators do not take Joe Biden seriously after all he preemptively wrecked American energy independence and handed Putin permission to hold Europe hostage to the flow of Russian gas, and then begged Putin to flood the market with oil to bring down American gas prices,” said Wilkie in an email.
It is the latest in a series of back and forth between the U.S. and its European allies on one side and Russia on the other. But is Russia really alone?
No move will likely occur Until after the 2022 Beijing Olympics because China, of all countries, is a related factor in Russia’s calculation.
China is constantly in search of schemes to diminish the power of the U.S. and supplanting its power anywhere possible.
The symbolic number of U.S. troops sent to eastern Europe is backed only by the threat of U.S. economic sanctions.
Sen. Robert Menendez, (D-N.J.) told CNN that his legislative effort (presumably bipartisan) would be “the mother of all sanctions,” should Russia choose to invade.
But would economic sanctions alone cause Putin to take troops off the border?
“A lot of the talk about economic sanctions is really a pie in the sky because China is now Russia’s banker,” Wilkie told Fox News. “Xi Jinping will back Putin if sanctions from the West come…That’s a safety net he probably didn’t have 10, 15 years ago, and China probably wasn’t capable of buttressing the Russian state as it is now.”
The most talked-about action would be to halt activation of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that goes to a dependent Germany.
China could be Russia’s savior.
“Even if the Germans were to do an about-face on the Nord Stream 2, China would pick up the slack – they need the energy as much if not more than Europe does. That’s how I would see that playing out,” Wilkie said to Fox.
Most Democrat and Republican legislators are taking this situation as a threat to U.S. interests.
“Putin is not the only one watching us in Ukraine. [Chinese] President Xi [Jinping] is watching us. And our allies around the world — obviously after Afghanistan — are doubting our credibility, our reliability,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) told Politico.
The U.S. must force a Russian standdown using the full array of diplomatic, economic, cyber, and military means in the form of assistance to Ukraine and leaders must explain why it is necessary.
A Russian takeover of Ukraine would mean Russia, together with its more powerful Chinese ally, would turn its efforts to the Pacific Rim. They would not stop at Ukraine.
Diplomatic efforts should expand from European nations because it does not bode well for Pacific nations to see Russia take over Ukraine. Japan, South Korea, Australia, and others can add to pressure on Russia.
Economic sanctions, though clearly alone not a panacea, should also move forward. The Biden administration can at once lift the energy-producing restrictions at home again becoming an exporting energy producer that will lessen Russia’s European influence going forward.
The U.S. must employ its cyber and informational strength now to disrupt Russian military, economic, and other governmental operations.
The U.S. should also continue building the strength of Ukrainian forces to make it clear that a Russian invasion would prove painful.
We cannot allow the loss of Ukraine’s sovereignty.
