Sometimes the universe does conspire against you.

President Joe Biden’s first year could be portrayed as an inevitable series of disasters, whether actual, political, or both. Omicron stalks him, inflation taunts him, his signature legislative program Build Back Better, and the midterm elections loom ominously on the horizon. But 2022 could still turn out to be a good year for him. With a bit of smile from the Fates and some deft moves on his part, the New Year could still end up a happy one.

President Bill Clinton crystallized the second law of presidential politics, “It’s the economy, stupid.” The markets have already factored in the Omicron variant and responded less optimistically than in the fall, but optimistically all the same. Goldman Sachs calls GDP growth at 3.8 percent now, down from 4.2 percent. That’s a hit, for sure, but it’s still far higher than the average growth rate. More importantly, it will feel like a hot economy to most voters, even it’s less so than the professionals predict. It’s the widespread feeling about the economy that matters most.

Wall Street knows this isn’t spring 2020. We now have a much clearer understanding of the SARS-COV2 virus and the COVID disease it causes. The new variant does cause many infections despite vaccinations, but the kind of COVID it causes is now solidly understood to be less severe. There are several new treatments against the disease coming to the market shortly and we, as a people, are behaving better, masking and testing in large numbers even if too many aren’t. Business has figured out how to operate under these conditions after two years, and investors have built this observation into their models.

Economist Paul Krugman has consistently argued that much of what we’re seeing is likely to be transitory. He notes other well-regarded economists don’t share his take, but he is a Nobel laureate. His analysis can’t easily be dismissed. Also, inflation may well not end up as bad as people think.

Finally, Build Back Better could still pass. Sen. Joe Manchin has signaled he’s still open to some form of the bill could pass. Manchin is open to something and may well have overplayed his hand. Even a further trimmed bill could be transformative for millions and extremely popular with voters. And if that doesn’t happen, piecemeal versions of nixed programs could still get through. A party-line vote in the Senate will leave no doubt who deserves the credit. Voters won’t care about the storyline that Biden failed to pass the whole bill. Any change in people’s daily lives will still be significantly more than they’d get under Republicans.

And if voters get some form of childcare support, subsidized education, or more affordable healthcare, esoteric things like foreign policy failures will fade. The Afghanistan story is already a non-issue for voters, and the claim that it was a total debacle has always been questionable. Biden’s theory of foreign policy is that it rests on the relationship you have with the other guy at the table. So far, he’s played Russian President Vladimir Putin precisely right. He’s been both rigid and cautious at the same time. He knows Putin from his years as the vice president, and he’s boxed him in on Ukraine. Putin risks real economic disaster if he invades again, and yet Biden is confident he can say he won’t send troops in the event he does anyway. This probably won’t matter much to voters, foreign policy rarely does, but going toe-to-toe with Putin over defending freedom in a country that’s important to Republicans, too, will insulate him from usual charges that Democratic presidents are soft on foreign policy.

The first rule of presidential politics is President Ronald Reagan’s existential question: are you better off now than four years ago? This is broader than the Clinton law. It asks whether voters feel better off. The economy is only part of that. And “the economy” is too ethereal for most voters who aren’t financiers or captains of industry. Biden understands this better than anyone. Scranton isn’t Wall Street. What voters want more than anything are good jobs with good wages and genuine support that stabilizes their communities with quality and affordable childcare, healthcare, and education. If Biden can move the needle on any of these things, his approval will rise back up.

The spread of the Omicron variant isn’t his fault. It is a conspiracy of the universe. Attacks on his administration’s response to the surge aren’t unwarranted, but Biden’s been self-assured enough to admit them and adjust. This is a far cry from his predecessor’s extreme self-doubt and delusion. By the fall, the virus could burn itself down to a flu-like threat. No one knows, but summer sunshine brings better conditions, better options for prevention and care, and another chance at plain luck. By the midterms, people could be feeling a lot better off under his leadership than Trump’s and the GOP. The downside of being Trump is that the saturation of attention he generates means people’s memories of his incompetence stay fresh day after day in the media.

Biden ran on his competence. Most people understand that competence isn’t the same as perfection. Competence is about having a good process for making decisions, that is, good judgment, even if you suffer setbacks or outright failures along the way. Even in the hell that was 2021, he showed just how sound his way of deciding was. This year will offer more opportunities for him to demonstrate his competence. The New Year will also be time for the pandemic to work through its next phase and for the president to win some critical victories for millions of people around the country. That’s not a bad year.