Gary Johnson supports the legalization of marijuana and opposes outlawing of guns. Opposing any ban against Muslims entering the United States, this former governor of New Mexico calls immigrants “the cream of the crop.’’
And currently, he’s pulling close to 10 percent of American voters surveyed in theoretical match-ups against Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump in the tumultuous presidential election contest of 2016.
The nominee of the Libertarian Party — its motto “Minimum Government, Maximum Freedom’’ — will need 15 percent in the polls this fall to earn a place on the presidential debate stage that no third-party candidate has held since Ross Perot debated President George H.W. Bush and rival Bill Clinton in 1992.
And Johnson, 63, harbors no illusions about his actual chances in representing a party that hasn’t garnered more than 1 percent of the vote nationally since fielding its first candidates on presidential ballots in 1972.
“The only chance I have to be elected is to be in the presidential debates,’’ says Johnson, who served as New Mexico’s governor as a Republican from 1995 to 2003. He started running for president as a Republican in 2012 and then became the Libertarian nominee. He corralled 1.275 million votes — just 0.99 percent.
So here he comes again, with running mate William Weld, a former Massachusetts governor, appearing in a nationally televised forum at 9 pm ET Wednesday — a CNN “Town Hall’’ in New York City — as a non-Trump, non-Clinton option.
“Whoa… that just might happen,’’ Johnson recently told CNN about his chances of making it to the big debate stage in September.
The share of support which Johnson claims in early polling is a measure of how dissatisfied many voters are with the big parties’ choices. He is drawing an average of 9 percent in three-way match-ups this month, and 7 percent in four-way tests — the Green Party’s Jill Stein pulls 4 percent in four-way surveys. Johnson appears to draw support equally, about 4 percentage points, from Clinton and Trump.
“Both have unfavorables above 50 percent, and right at one-fifth of the electorate have an unfavorable impression of both candidates,’’ says Neil Newhouse, a Virginia-based pollster who advised Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign in 2012 and the super PAC, “Right to Rise,” supporting Jeb Bush early this year. “I’ve described this as a “nose-holder” election where voters are casting their ballots for the candidate they are less unfavorable toward.’’
“The political environment — the negative mood of the country… high disapproval of Congress and record unfavorables for both presidential nominees — is the perfect setting for a third-party candidate to do well this fall,’’ says Newhouse, a partner in Alexandria-based Public Opinion Strategies.
Still, there’s a caveat here: “Having polled in elections with third-party candidates, what we’ve generally found is that their support declines as you get closer to Election Day, as voters don’t want to ‘waste’ their votes,’’ Newhouse says. “It’s far too early to get an accurate read on how well the Libertarian ticket might do.’’
The Libertarians have never provided a strong platform for a third-party candidate. John Anderson fared better as an independent in 1980, and Ross Perot claimed 19 percent of the vote in 1992. Ron Paul, the former Texas congressman who ran as a Libertarian in 1988 (claiming 0.47 percent of the vote) found more support as a Republican in the 2008 and 2012 primaries, attracting a cult-like following to his mantra of less governmental intrusion at home and less U.S. intervention abroad.
Yet a fringe candidate possesses the ability to deny a major party’s nominee victory in an important electoral state: Consumer advocate Ralph Nader collected 97,000 votes in Florida in 2000, certainly costing Al Gore the state — and with that, the White House. Gore trailed George W. Bush by a disputed 537 votes there.
“We’ve seen how third-party candidacies can make a difference in close races in swing states,’’ pollster Newhouse says, “so it would be wise not to ignore their potential impact in November.’’
This year, amid widespread dissatisfaction with the major parties’ contenders, early polling suggests more interest than usual in a Libertarian alternative. And Johnson is that alternative: a soft-spoken businessman who prospered in the founding of a construction company, Big J Enterprises. The son of a public school teacher, his all-time favorite book is Ayn Rand’s “The Fountainhead.’’
He’s getting a second look this year by Republicans such as Romney, who has called Trump “a fraud,” and who say they can support neither Trump nor Clinton.
Of course, there are issues. For one, Romney says: “Marijuana makes people stupid.’’ Johnson: “I do not agree with that, as someone who has used marijuana.’’
Johnson easily parts paths with Trump on some of his own most controversial proposals, a ban on Muslims and a wall barring Mexicans from entering the U.S.
“With regard to Trump, he’s saying some things that I just think are ridiculous and would disqualify any other candidate,” Johnson has told CNN’s Chris Cuomo, the town hall host. Building a border wall, Johnson said, is simply “crazy… Speaking as a border governor, they (immigrants) are the cream of the crop.’’
Yet he also draws a line against Clinton’s gun controls. If we restrict guns, he told CNN’s Erin Burnett, “the bad guys are just going to have guns, it’s that simple.’’
It comes down to this, Johnson says of his party’s ticket: “We are fiscally conservative, over the top. We’re socially liberal… as long as you don’t force that on other people. And lastly… I think our military interventions have resulted in the world being less safe, not more safe.’’
And as for that first Sept. 26 debate in Dayton, Ohio, the Commission on Presidential Debates says, it comes down to this: “Candidates must… have a level of support of at least 15 percent’’ in five national polls. Determination about participation in the premiere of three debates will be made after Labor Day.
