Ukraine is focused on expelling Russian forces from its country. It does not want to concede ill-gotten Russian gains from 2014 and is not settling for turning over territory in exchange for discontinuing the war.
In other words, Ukraine wants to win. We should help them beyond sending weapons systems.
One lesson from our Iraq War experience can prove useful. In Iraq, the coalition did not talk about winning. As a senior communications officer in Baghdad, I was admonished to avoid using the word “win” in public statements or in press events. Leaders did not describe it either. Because of this, there was no clearly defined end-state. We used inane terms like “lead from behind,” that described nothing of value.
Ukraine’s leaders consider Russia leaving the country completely as a requirement. Nothing to be negotiated on that front. This kind of concentrated mission focus is important because it does not leave an out for Ukrainian leaders other than President Volodymyr Zelensky. He wants to win.
Zelensky is resisting all attempts to negotiate a favorable or easy outcome for Russia.
For the rest of the world, we should already be moving to discussions of what post-war Ukraine and Russia should look like. A close examination of war reparations is something NATO, Ukraine and other countries should be pushing for now. The reconstruction of Ukraine must be billed to Russia.
Russia does not get a vote in the matter. No one expects a willing effort, but there is plenty of money worldwide in banks and other institutions, and property that currently belongs to Russia and its oligarchs, to be taken and used for Ukraine.
The concentration on winning and talk of reparations now, even though Ukraine is far from achieving its aim, gives notice to Russia and its citizens that there is a continuing price to be paid for this aggressive illegal war.
Russians, other than Putin, can influence their future by exerting internal resistance. Russian citizens will have to decide if this is what they want, but the rest of the international community can march forward for a renewed Ukraine.
The United States, NATO and other nations contributing to Ukraine cannot allow Russia to simply leave Ukraine and return to the status quo ante. That is merely an initial step. The Russians have committed too many atrocities to simply have them ignored.
A mission statement not involving U.S. or NATO military troops in Ukraine does not require the kind of unconditional surrender commitment the Allies sought in World War II against the Axis powers, but a clear mission statement is achievable. The goal of the mission is to reduce the likelihood of future ventures by criminal regimes.
Leaders in government, academia and business should now publicly discuss the process of making Ukraine whole for several reasons.
This will change the effects of the conversation internationally and will allow the continued rallying of international support of Ukraine and send clear signals to the combatants at every level.
Russian leaders must know that their future travel, banking, normal diplomatic relations and engagement in international commerce will be affected for now and into the future, especially if this brutality continues.
The international coalition of countries aiding Ukraine can directly apply the important lessons from the West’s experience in Iraq that requires us to proclaim a desired mission end-state. A win.
While reparations cannot to be so onerous as to completely cripple Russian, their scope can be tailored to reconstruction needs and not have additional punitive effects (see the Treaty of Versailles and its follow-on problems for guidance).
Putin and his Russian conspirators will understand that to pay war reparations will likely require permanent confiscation of funds already blocked globally to compensate Ukraine.
Lifting of sanctions must be dependent on actions. One requirement is complete Russian departure from Ukraine and reparations paid for lifting of sanctions to be considered. The Russian people must understand the costs.
The Biden administration and NATO have chosen a path that does not include introducing troops in the theater of war. Ukraine has shown greater resilience and resistance to being taken over by the suddenly not-so-mighty Russian army and navy than anyone expected. Especially Vladimir Putin.
Now is the time for action in setting the stage for a Ukrainian victory — by their definition — and ensuring Russia lacks the power and the will to further engage in criminal, aggressive war.
