Just what will it take for the mainstream media to awaken to the disaster that is the presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton? Pretending that what happened in Iowa was anything other than a near death experience for the former Secretary of State is simply nonsense. Worse, for those supporting her, the news is going to get even worse in the coming days.
A while back, I wrote about her overall standing with the public, noting that her overall ratings were 44 favorable, 51 unfavorable. However, among Democrats, Mrs. Clinton was viewed favorably 84-11. It would appear that ground is shifting beneath her feet. The idea that Democrats need to nominate someone who obviously is viewed very negatively by everyone other than Democrats to win in November defies all logic, and now even the Democrats are jumping ship.
Think about this. Hillary Clinton has raised huge sums of money. Her Super PAC has amassed and spent an unprecedented amount for a Democratic challenger. She is running against a 74 year-old, white man, who self-describes himself as a socialist and whose home state is hardly the breeding ground of national candidates.
Thanks to dominating the coin toss vote, she appears to have eked out a victory over this underwhelming challenger in Iowa. If Hillary Clinton cannot crush Bernie Sanders, what is the argument she is going to be so tough in November? The actual polling data shows Sanders running more strongly against the various Republican candidates than Mrs. Clinton. Loud cries of “a victory is a victory” with these facts is whistling past the graveyard.
Mrs. Clinton basically ignored Bernie Sanders for many months. Then, as he gained traction, she had the campaign go to its default setting and attack him. As her problems mounted, these attacks either had little impact or, in some cases, actually backfired. Much has been written about the meager crowds she is attracting and the lack of enthusiasm among those present.
Why do her defenders among the chattering class think a crushing defeat in New Hampshire is just what the doctor ordered to improve her situation? The prediction here is that even the world-class Clinton spin machine, and all its talented voices will be struggling on Tuesday night to come up with anything more than “wait for South Carolina.”
Counting votes actually cast counts in American politics. What happens in one place impacts what happens in another. This is historical fact. It is unlikely to change in 2016. Hillary Clinton continues to enjoy a slight edge among female Democrats and a huge advantage among minority voters. It is absolutely true that when the campaign moves to the south, her strength among minority voters (primarily, but not exclusively, African Americans) is likely to sustain her campaign. It will allow her to live and fight another day.
This said, there are a lot of other states where demography does not contribute to any edge for Secretary Clinton. In a whole host of states, it is easy to see how the composition of the electorate favors Senator Sanders. Not only that, but as you look at the situation in its entirety, you are awfully tempted to say the states where Mrs. Clinton has an advantage are largely states that no Democrat is likely to carry in the general election.
Right now, Mrs. Clinton has the overwhelming support of the Super Delegates—delegates coming from elected officials, party leaders, etc. These delegates are free to vote for whomever they choose. This is not some tiny group. They are 15 percent of all the delegates. When they see massive erosion in support for Mrs. Clinton, and when they see her being strong primarily in states that are deeply Red, why would they not reconsider their support for Mrs. Clinton.
Rules are made to be changed. We conservatives tend to be reluctant to change the rules. From personal observation, liberals can be said to have no hesitation to bend, reverse, and rewrite any rule in order to advance political self-interest. If they conclude that Mrs. Clinton is a dead loser, you can predict today a pathway for someone else will be found. You can bet they will throw her under the bus with not a lot of soul searching.
So, what are the bottom lines? Any fair reading of where Hillary Clinton stands today, after the Iowa Caucuses, would be she is in deep trouble. What is going to happen next is she will be crushed in New Hampshire. Then, she will stumble through some states where her support from minority voters allows her to remain competitive. However, her weakness will be underscored when Bernie Sanders beats her elsewhere. Finally, the reality of how terrible the chances are for Democrats to win with her at the head of the ticket sets in, she will be shoved aside for a new candidate. Did someone just say Joe Biden has a better chance than Hillary Clinton?
