Bush, Walker, Christie Shine at Ag Summit

Nine presidential aspirants visited the first-in-the-nation caucus state this weekend with appearances at the inaugural Iowa Agriculture Summit. While the national news media has taken to questioning his viability with conservative voters in Iowa, Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush received a warm reception from likely caucus-goers and showed early signs of strength in the crowded Republican field.

Bush’s first visit to Iowa since announcing he may run for president comes as Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has opened up an early lead in Iowa polling. The rise of Walker and the entrance of Bush into the field come at the expense of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie who has recently lost favor with many Iowa Republicans.

But even as Walker has surged in recent polling as a result of significant national media attention and appeals to conservative activists, some GOP observers take note of candidates in 2012 who faded quickly as it became clear they were unprepared for the national stage.

A recent Quinnipiac Poll shows Walker, despite his early popularity, remains an unknown quantity among Iowa voters. Jeb Bush and Chris Christie already appear much better known. Christie finds himself deep underwater, with higher negative ratings from voters than positive. But Bush still stands in positive territory, even as some have made early attempts to castigate him as too moderate.

Bush’s appearance Saturday morning at the Iowa Agriculture Summit was truly a first for Iowa voters. Agribusiness entrepreneur Bruce Rastetter, host of the summit, created the event in hopes of advancing dialogue about agriculture and related issues in the 2016 election. Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, who was initially interrupted by protestors at the start of his remarks, helped open the event, noting, “There isn’t an industry in America that touches every American like agriculture.” Rastetter is one of the most influential Republican donors in the state.

Bush went on stage mid-morning, with Rastetter asking questions that often revolved around ­­­­foreign policy, including Bush’s views on China and Cuba. Doug Bell of Thornton, Iowa tells InsideSources he found Bush “very informative and knowledgeable. I liked how he approached the discussion… just explaining to us what his version is.”

Bush addressed his stance on immigration by voicing his support for law enforcement while also indicating the need for reform. “If we want to be young and dynamic and growing again,” explained Bush, “I think we need to fix this broken immigration system.”

While he offered his positions on national issues, the former governor also articulated his support on Saturday for local control of local issues.

Bush is receiving cover in Iowa on one issue the national news media has regularly tried to pigeon hole as a negative for his campaign. Common Core, a set of educational standards (not a national curriculum as some likely 2016 candidates have taken to inaccurately claiming), has some conservatives on the attack against Bush for his support. Washington punditry has tried to claim Bush’s support for higher standards will harm him. But polling remains mixed, and there is an opportunity for both sides to make their case to the public.

The Collaborative for Student Success, a pro-Common Core advocacy organization supported by the Gates Foundation, had a full-page ad in the Des Moines Register ahead of the Ag Summit, and the group is currently on air with radio ads. The ads feature Bill Bennett, Secretary of Education under Ronald Reagan, offering a conservative voice in support of the state-led effort for higher English and math standards, which are “crucial for modern agriculture.” Bennett notes: “This voluntary state-led effort preserves local decision making over curriculum and what is taught in each classroom.”

In addition to Bush, Christie and Walker each showed strength at the Ag Summit.

New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who once led polls in the state, has seen his lead diminish. The Quinnipiac Poll pegged the New Jersey Governor at 4%, a substantial drop. He also struggles with low favorability ratings. Christie’s remarks at the Ag Summit may offer a boost. Rastetter, who once encouraged Christie to enter the 2012 presidential race, has not yet endorsed any candidate this year. Frequently interrupted with laughter and applause, Christie touted the benefits of free-market reforms in agriculture while also showing support for the Renewable Fuel Standard.  Laura Schultz, an ethanol plant employee, believed that “While other candidates may have had more powerful stances [on renewable fuels], [Christie] articulated his stance best.” The New Jersey Governor touted his conservative positions such as taxation, health care and regulation stating, “The fact is, we tax too much already.”

Walker sought to connect with the farming community on Saturday. “Farming isn’t just a business, it’s a way of life,” he said while also noting that he spent part of his childhood growing up in Iowa.

Walker has recently experienced a significant bump in the polls following a well-received speech at the Iowa Faith and Freedom Summit in January. Walker’s strong showing is partly from the conservative element within the state’s Republican Party. In the recent Quinnipiac Poll, 45% of likely Republican Caucus attendees identify as “very conservative.” In addition, 32% of attendees are supporters of the Tea Party movement. These two groups have propelled Walker to early frontrunner status.

Rich Weber of West Des Moines does not yet support any candidate but was intrigued by Walker. “I’m a former union guy, but I’m all for reining in unions and [Walker’s] got the whole Right to Work thing going on,” said Weber to InsideSources.

While Bush finds himself trailing the as-yet-undefined Walker, the Quinnipiac Poll showed Iowa voters view him near the top of the pack.

Speaking with InsideSources, Mark Hanson of Waukee, Iowa said, “I think [Bush] has a likability factor. He’s a man of his word that does what he says he’ll do.”

While Bush may struggle to win the conservative-leaning Hawkeye State against firebrand rivals, he is already primed to outperform the pundits who question his viability.

Bush recently hired David Kochel, an Iowa strategist who advised the campaigns of Mitt Romney and Senator Joni Ernst. He is widely expected to serve as Bush’s campaign manager. Alexander Etgeton, a Polk County, Iowa Republican activist, noted the importance of this hiring: “Jeb’s performance at the Summit will set the tone for his performance in the state. The hiring of a prominent Iowa strategist shows that Bush is seriously considering a play for the state’s delegates.”

Many political strategists are noting that Bush won’t need to win the Iowa Caucuses, he’ll just need to “win his lane” and finish near the top of the field to propel his candidacy in New Hampshire and other early states.

The Ag Summit this weekend made clear that the presidential field is far from settled, but Jeb Bush is set to do better in Iowa than pundits may have us believe.